Metals industry update Q1 2024

The macroeconomic environment in 2024 appears to be stabilizing as the monetary tightening regime of 2023 and consequent weaker consumption have, for now, ended. Indeed, the Federal Reserve Bank has held interest rates unchanged since July 2023 and signaled cuts in the year ahead, as inflationary pressures are expected to dampen. The U.S. metals industry is anticipated to benefit as market spending and investment increases.

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI strengthened for three consecutive months beginning in December 2023 and rose to a 21-month high in March 2024. While manufacturing activity has expanded, there is mixed sentiment regarding restocking as many market participants indicate levels of inventory that are sufficient to meet current workloads.

Spurred by Federal tax incentives, the number of utility-scale clean energy installations had a landmark year in 2023, surpassing the previous high by 12.5%. Led by solar and energy storage projects, the development pipeline has increased by 25% YoY, foreshadowing robust metal demand.

While wind energy projects witnessed slower than expected activity in 2023 due to the long permitting processes and input cost challenges, the sector is positioned to generate solid incremental demand for metals in the coming years. According to BloombergNEF’s projection, the U.S. is likely to install ~36.4 GW of wind capacity by 2030.

Looking ahead in 2024, with the U.S. elections approaching, the outcome could have ramifications on metals, as Federal legislation, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could be revisited.

Finally, to combat surging inexpensive metal imported from Mexico, U.S. Senators have proposed reinstating tariffs on the country’s imports. If passed, it would help curtail foreign dumping and boost the domestic market.